Economists Debate Causes Behind Disappointing October Jobs Numbers

Bankrate.com senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick, who predicted earlier this week that around 125,000 new jobs would be added, told The Epoch Times that Friday morning’s report makes the overall outlook muddy at best.
“My biggest concern is the fact we had a noisy report that doesn’t give us a high degree of confidence of what the actual situation is. Some of the new jobless claims have simmered down, dissipating the impact of the Boeing strike, and that alone is significant as it’s one of the most important companies in our country,” he said.
But Julie Pollak, chief economist for Ziprecruiter.com, told The Epoch Times that her review of Friday’s job report numbers doesn’t reflect an impact by the strikers.
“The largest losses were in a sector not likely affected by the strikes. It was in professional business services and a decline in temporary hiring. It’s the largest in several months but not more than the last few years,” she said. “We thought it would level off at some point, but the decline in temporary workers are those on the front lines. They’re the bellwether, so when conditions are weak in the economy, you get rid of them first.”
In Friday morning’s BLS report, professional and business services lost 47,000 jobs due to decreased temporary staffing. Manufacturing lost 46,000 jobs, largely due to striking Boeing workers.
Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which pounded the southeast United States in September, were also thought to have affected Friday’s report. Still, Pollak said she had difficulty finding that correlation in the released numbers.
“The storm impact is hard to find in this report. It’s not clear which job losses are due to the storm. The categories you expect to be most affected aren’t in this report,” she said. “You can see an increase of people not at work due to bad weather and part-time versus full-time, but that’s not the main reason for the weak numbers in this report.”
On the positive side, health care jobs gained 52,000, but there was little else that was encouraging to point at. Leisure and hospitality, as well as construction jobs, remained flat. However, Hamrick said that those following the economy shouldn’t be putting much weight on Friday morning’s disappointing numbers.
“I think some reports are more meaningful than others, and we’re just going to have to get past this one,” he said.
“The ADP (National Employment Report) came in on the upside, and the GDP continues to be impressive, and consumer spending has been resilient. We have an election that’s going to be associated with an outcome we can’t predict, but in regards to the economy, it’s resisted a recession for three years now.”
Regarding Friday’s dismal numbers, Pollak said she did not believe either of the presidential candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump, would be buoyed or hurt at this late stage.
“People have made their minds up about this economy, but it would certainly have been a better argument for the Harris campaign if this was a blockbuster number.”